Moscow ablaze on election day as Putin seeks a mandate to continue his war in Ukraine

Moscow came under a drone attack on Sept. 20, triggering a massive fire at an oil refinery in Kapotnya, a facility crucial to the capital’s economy.

The attack came as Russia held parliamentary elections, a vote that, according to political observers, President Vladimir Putin is seeking to use to cement public support for his decision to continue the war against Ukraine.

Despite intensive efforts by world leaders to end the bloodshed, the Kremlin continues to look for ways to replenish its forces and mobilize more soldiers for the war, including the campaign to seize the Donbas, Ukraine’s industrial heartland, which Russia has failed to conquer since 2014.

Russia’s economy is under severe pressure from international sanctions, while Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly targeted one of the Kremlin’s key industries.

A Financial Times analysis of refinery data, satellite imagery and expert assessments found that more than 30% of Russia’s actual oil-refining capacity has been knocked offline, while 45% of nominal capacity has been disabled.

Meanwhile, opposition Russian media have reported growing public discontent among Russians who were promised that Kyiv would fall “in three days” in 2022.

The Kremlin now faces the difficult task of explaining to its electorate the prospect of another mobilization, mounting economic problems and gasoline shortages reported all across the country.

That makes Sunday’s elections particularly important for Putin. The ballot is dominated by parties that support the Kremlin’s war policy, leaving no room for any political opposition.

Putin has continued to reject all efforts by the Trump administration to end the war, sabotaging any direct peace talks with Kyiv.

The strikes on Moscow come against the backdrop of Russia’s continuing ballistic missile and drone attacks across Ukraine. The Kremlin appears to be betting that sustained attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, water supplies and railways before another winter could weaken Ukrainian resistance and increase pressure for territorial concessions.

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Yet despite the staggering human cost, Moscow shows no sign of abandoning the war. The Economist’s latest assessment puts the actual number of Russian military deaths between 373,000 and 695,000, with total casualties — killed, wounded and missing — estimated at between 1.33 million and 1.9 million.

Rather than scaling back, the Kremlin is framing the conflict in increasingly broader terms. Moscow continues to portray Ukraine and its European allies as part of a wider confrontation with the West, while European governments are warning of a long-term Russian threat beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. 

A recent CSIS assessment said the Kremlin views the war as part of a systemic confrontation with the Euro-Atlantic West and is preparing for an enduring conflict with Europe.