NBU Issued Business Outlook Survey in Q1 2016

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Respondents worsened their expectations about the economic situation in Ukraine and prospects for the development of their enterprises over the next 12 months against a background of trade and transit restrictions by the Russian Federation and significant fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate in February, the unstable political situation etc.

In the next 12 months, it is expected:

  • The downturn – business outlook index is 98.4% (in Q4 2015 – 104.0%). The decrease was due to respondents’ worsened assessments for all main types of business activity;
  • Goods and services output dropped (the balance of expectations – “minus” 18.5%, in Q4 2015 – “minus” 14.6%);
  • The hryvnia exchange rate continued to decrease – the average value of hryvnia to the US dollar exchange rate – 29.97 UAH/USD (in Q4 2015 – 27.24 UAH/USD);
  • An insignificant slowdown of the consumer prices growth rate – to 22.2% (in Q4 2015 – 22.5%). Respondents reported increased borrowing needs. Enterprises plan to take out mostly national currency loans.

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